Short cycles
turned positive from oversold levels as [June] and the quarter
came to a close. Institutions stepped up buying ahead of the
final week of the quarter. On Wednesday [June 23], upside volume
was five times that of the downside volume on the Nasdaq. Technology
led the rally with strong buying into the semiconductor stocks.
[Such] leadership is positive and shows that the institutions
are becoming more convinced that the market will move higher...
The Dow Jones Transportaion
Average (DJTA) has been moving up for several months, although
oil prices have moved sharply higher until recently. This...points
toward improvement in the economy and a possible intermediate
peak in oil prices. With short cycles just now turning positive
and intermediate cycles in the early stage of an uptrend, stocks
could move higher over the next several months. This isn't a
good time to hold short positions!...With better earnings and
intrest-rate uncertainty out of the way for now, stocks could
undergo a strong rally.
